Tuesday, February 26, 2008

An interesting take on the sub-prime mortgage crisis:

"It turned out that the smartest guys in the world weren’t as smart as they thought!

In developing the collateralised loan obligation, they hadn’t developed the goose that laid the golden egg. It turned out they’d developed the financial equivalent of an infectious haemorrhoid!"

(How Banks Bet Your Money - Dispatches)


Monday, February 25, 2008

Lecture 4 Assignment

1. A change in interest rate on bonds from 0.07 to 0.1. What effect does this have in u-vh space?


As is evident from the graphical representations below; capital output decreases only slightly more than when in its original state. Correspondingly however, it increases at a faster rate in the long term when shocked.

The value of households also has a similar outcome. The value of the household begins at a lower figure but increases steadily to over double the value of the non-shocked state.



2. Show a change in the value of α from 0.3 to 0.7.


The shock in the accelerator effect impacts negatively on both output and the households values. The capital output increases initially but subsequently reduces slighlty to the constant value of 0.92.


The shock to the value of households is quite drastic as the household value quickly falls below 1.

Homework 3

Question 1

1. Explain the differences between SIM and SIMEX when both models are in their steady states.

The model SIM omits growth, with the steady state assuming that both the stocks and flows in the model change at the same rate and remain constant over time. The SIM model assumes:

· ΔHh = YD – C = 0

· ΔHg = G - T = 0

The SIM model assumes there is no change in the stock of money.

The government do not have a surplus or deficit as their expenditure is equal to the income they receive through taxation.

Household savings converge to zero as consumption must equal disposable income.

The SIM model is based on the assumption that consumers have perfect foresight and are completely certain of their future income. Wealth is the equilibrium mechanism in the SIM model.

This differs from the SIMEX model due to uncertainty. Consumers have to develop fixed expectations for their future disposable income.

  • YDe = YD-1

The role of money is the equilibrium mechanism in the SIMEX model. The SIMEX model takes longer to converge to the steady state than the SIM model, but both equilibriums remain the same.

The SIMEX has four more equations to consider in its steady state in comparison to the SIM model. This is due to role of money in the SIMEX model and the fixed expectations of future disposable income rather than perfect foresight.


2. What does it mean for the stability of the model when the presence of mistakes allow household’s incomes suffer? Can you draw any conclusions about the real world from this model?

The stability of the model will remain intact when the presence of mistakes allow household’s incomes to suffer.

For example, if the household underestimates its disposable income in a given period, their savings will increase at a greater rate than expected if their expectations were met. The household will continually have fixed expectations towards disposable income and you use their stock of money as a buffer when expectations are not met. This process continues until expected disposable income equals actual disposable income:

  • YDe = YD

In a real world sense, if people continually underestimate their expected future disposable income, their wealth would grow faster than if they were correct in their expectations at every time period. If people continually overestimate their expected disposable income, their stock of wealth would fall considerably as they would have to use their savings to fund consumption.


3. Solve SIMEX for the following values for 3 periods: G = 30, α1 = 0.6, α2 = 0.4, Θ = 0.2.




Question 2

1. Is it possible to specify a version of SIM that replicates the ISLM model?


The version of SIM that replicates the ISLM model is that where

C = α0 + (α1 * YD) (1)

where; α0 represents autonomous consumption, α1 represents the marginal propensity to consume and YD is the disposable income.

This is so because ISLM is representative of that state which does not take account of stocks of money from previous periods.

2. Write one down and comment on the stability of this model.


First, we will look at the consumption function which is not stable in order to provide a more comprehensive explanation as to why equation (1) is stable.

C = α1 * YD (2)

This model is not stable over time because it does not take account of cash money from previous periods. According to Godley and Lavoie (2007), this representation of the consumption function does not allow for growth in the model. In order for the model to be stable, there would have to be a “stock disequilibrium”, i.e. if income and consumption remain constant, then the money stock and government debt must be rising for ever (by an amount equal in each period to YD – C)

C = α0 + (α1 * YD)

α0 represents autonomous consumption in this model, i.e. consumption that is independent of income. This consumption function is admissible as the constant term α0 corrects for the problem in equation (2).

Friday, February 15, 2008

Homework 2



Q1.1. Why must the Vertical Columns sum to zero?

"The vertical columns must necessarily sum to zero, because the change in the amount of money held must always be equal to the difference between households' receipts and payments." (Godley & Lavoie, 2007: p.62)


Households for example, -ΔHh = W.Ns-Cd-Ts

The household’s factor income is the total amount of money supplied to the household through the wage bill from supplying labour to the production element of the behavioural matrix. The government in turn demand taxes which is supplied by the household through income tax (-Ts). Households demands goods and services from the economy, they therefore use their income (minus taxes) to satisfy this demand.

The consumption of the household is therefore also deducted from their income (-Cd). That amount of money not consumed can be defined as the change in the money stock (ΔHh). The vertical column must therefore equal zero.

Q1.2. Why must the horizontal Rows sum to zero?

"The matrix shows that every component of the transaction-flow matrix must have an equivalent component, or a sum of equivalent components, elsewhere." (Godley & Lavoie, 2007: p.60)

Every demand in the behavioural matrix can be fully satisfied by the supply in the economy. For example, producers supply the goods and services to the households and are able to satisfy their demand. It is assumed that if the households demand increases, the producers have the capacity to satisfy this demand instantaneously.


Total production (Y) is the only component which does not have an exact opposite in the matrix. This is due to the fact that it is not a transaction akin to the other components in the matrix.

Q2. Write out an explanation for each row.

  1. Consumption: “sales are always equal to demand because it is assumed that inventories are always large enough to absorb any discrepancy between production and demand” (Godley and Lavoie, 2007: p.64). Consumption is that percentage of the household's income which is spent on purchasing the goods and services they demand that are supplied by the producers in the economy. The producers supply a level of goods and services that exactly offsets that demanded by the household.

  1. Government Expenditure: The principle is the same as that of the consumption element of the transaction matrix in that the producers are supplying goods and services in return for payment. The difference is that the government is the recipient of the service in this case and this represents an outflow of money from the government.

  1. Output: The output is the total production in the economy. "the sum of all expenditures on goods and services or [as] the sum of all payments of factor income"(Godley and Lavoie, 2007: p.61).

Y = C + G = WB

  1. Factor Income: The producer pays the household a wage rate for employment services rendered. It is assumed that there is an unlimited amount of labour to satisfy demand and there is a willingness to work at the fixed wage rate.

  1. Taxes: The income of the household is taxed at a rate -Ts. This in turn, is a source of income generated for the government in the amount +Td which is used to fund government expenditure going forward.

  1. Change in Money Stock: The change in the money stock represents changes from one period to the next resulting from the household not consuming all of their disposable income. When this happens and households have a surplus of money, they use this to purchase financial assets from the government.


References


  1. Godley, W., and M. Lavoie (2007) Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth, Palgrave Macmillan.

  1. Lavoie, M. (2001) “Endogenous Money in a Coherent Stock-Flow Framework” available: http://129.3.20.41/eps/mac/papers/0103/0103007.pdf [accessed 16 Feb 2008].

  1. Leddin, A., and B. Walsh (2003) The Macroeconomy of the Eurozone: An Irish Perspective, Dublin: Gill and Macmillan.


Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Group 11 Members

KAREN WHELAN 0370673
MENGLAN DONG 0705012
MICHAEL BREEN 0229334

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Lecture 2 Exercise 3

The steady state value of output will remain constant when the personal income tax rate changes because the level of government expenditure will change in the same ratio.

For example, suppose government expenditure is 100m and the tax rate is 20%, giving an output of 5. If the government decides to increase the tax rate to 25%, then government expenditure is expected to increase to 125m given the steady state condition. Output remains at 5.

Homework 1

1. Aggregate Demand relation
In economics, aggregate demand (AD) is the total demand for final goods and services in the economy at a given time and price level. The aggregate demand (AD) relation is described as a linear sum of three separable demand sources. AD=C+I+G , if any one of three demand increase or decrease such as Government expenditure, aggregate demand would change positively. (Wikipedia 2008)

For example, Keynesian cross diagram of aggregate demand





2. Animal Spirits
This is a level of confidence which is overly optimistic without taking into account the negatives of a given situation.

For example, an entrepreneur establishing a new business in a highly competitive market may not consider the possibility of his/her business failing.


3. Bank Run
A bank run is a type of financial crisis. It takes place when the customers of a bank fear that the bank will become insolvent and withdraw their deposits as quickly as possible. (Wikipedia 2008)
For example, Northern Rock’s position as a result of the sub-prime crisis. Their customers feared insolvency and thus, rushed to withdraw deposits.

4. Bond
In finance, a bond is a debt security, in which the authorised issuer owes the holders a debt and is obliged to repay the principal and interest (the coupon) at a later date, termed maturity.

For example, the U.S. government issues bonds such as T-bonds, T-bills etc. in order to finance capital requirements yet are not obliged to pay the coupons or principal until a predefined later date.

5. Capital Account
This is an account comprised of a country’s loans and borrowings (both positive and negative) made by the public, government and other institutions. The capital account works in tandem with the current account to form a country’s balance of payments.

For example, an Irish resident acquiring a villa in Spain would have a negative effect on Ireland’s capital account as it is a capital outflow.

6. Debt to GDP ratio
This measures the level of a country's debt in relation to its gross domestic product (GDP). The debt-to-GDP ratio indicates the country's ability to pay back its debt.
For example, in The United Stated, people describe the current level of national debt as insignificant relative to the GDP. Below, in Figure 2 (a chart comparing the US debt, in red, to the debt’s percent of GDP, in blue)


(Mc Gourty 2007)


7. Effective Demand
Effective demand (in macroeconomics usually regarded as synonymous with aggregate demand), is an economic principle that suggests consumer needs and desires must be accompanied by purchasing power (money) to be considered effective in discussions of supply and demand for the determination of price. (Wikipedia 2008)

For example, in order for the demand for a good to increase in effective terms, there must be more than a desire for that good, it must actually be backed up by the ability to purchase the good. Only when the good is being physically purchased will this have an effect on driving up the price of the good.

8. Deflation
This can be defined as a general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction of the money supply. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. (Investopedia 2008)

For example, in 1979, the UK and the US governments adopted deflationary economic policies whereby they were willing to accept higher levels of unemployment in an attempt to reduce inflation. This is depicted in the following graph:


(Bized 2008)


9. Consumption Function
John Maynard Keynes developed a mathematical function to express consumer spending as one term called the "consumption function". The consumption function calculates the amount of total consumption in an economy. It is made up of autonomous consumption that is not influenced by current income and induced consumption that is influenced by the economy's income level.

For example, the consumption function may be written as C = α + mpc * Yd.

C = consumer expenditure
α = intercept term
mpc = marginal propensity to consume
Yd = disposable income

10. Consumer Price Index
A consumer price index (CPI) is an index number measuring the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It is one of several price indices calculated by national statistical agencies. The percent change in the CPI is a measure of inflation. The CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effects of inflation) wages, salaries, pensions, or regulated or contracted prices. (Wikipedia 2008)

For example, if a basket of goods in Ireland costs €100 in year 1 and the same basket of goods costs €105 in year 2, then the inflation rate in Ireland between year 1 & 2 has been 5%.


11. Investment Function
The investment function is a summary of the variables that influence the levels of aggregate investments. (Wikipedia 2008)

I=I(r,ΔY,q)

r = real interest rate
Y = GDP
Q = Tobin’s q

12. Fiscal Expansion
Changes in government expenditure and/or tax rates that influence total expenditure are examples of discretionary fiscal policy. Increases in expenditure and cuts in taxes are expansionary, decreases in expenditure and taxes hikes are contractionary. (Leddin and Walsh, 2003 p: 24)

For example, this will lead to a larger budget deficit or a smaller budget surplus than the government previously had a balanced budget. Expansionary fiscal policy is usually associated with a budget deficit. (Wikipedia 2008)

13. GDP Deflator
In economics, the GDP deflator (implicit price deflator for GDP) is a measure of the change in prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy. GDP stands for gross domestic product, the total value of all final goods and services produced within that economy during a specified period.

GDP Deflator = (Nominal GDP / Real GDP) * 100
(Wikipedia 2008)

14. Imports
These are goods or commodities that are produced in a foreign country which are made available for purchase to consumers of a domestic economy. In an economic sense, imports can be used to fulfil the demand for a product in a domestic economy which cannot be fulfilled by the economy itself.

For example, there is a demand for coffee in Ireland’s economy; Ireland does not have the capacity to fulfil this demand as it does not have the climate to produce coffee beans. Therefore, Ireland imports coffee from Brazil to satisfy the demand in its economy.

15. Monetary contraction
This is the process used to reduce the money supply in an economy. This is controlled by the central bank of the economy and can be achieved either through the reduction of the monetary base or indirectly through increasing nominal interest rates.

For example, the central bank could sell bonds in exchange for domestic currency; the central bank would then keep this currency which would decrease the money supply.

16. Nominal GDP
This is the value of all the goods and services produced in an economy without taking inflation into account.

For example, if the real GDP in Ireland’s economy is 3% and the inflation is 3%, then the nominal GDP would be 6%

17. Propensity to consume
This defines an individual’s preference for consumption today rather than saving his income for the future.

For example, if John has a propensity to consume of 0.75, he will spend 75% of his income and will save 25%.


18. Short run
This is a time frame upon which a firm must make decisions to prolong the existence of the firm into the long run.

For example, if the firm makes bad production decisions which would increase average variable costs above the price in the short run, the firm would not survive into the long run.

19. Real exchange rate
This is the ratio of prices between two countries currency which has been adjusted to account for inflation in both countries.

For example, € = (PEUR X e)/PUS (Leddin and Walsh, 2003: p.189)

20. Trade Surplus
This occurs when the value of the exports in an economy exceeds that of what that country imports from foreign producers.

For example, if Ireland exported €2 billion and imported only €1.5 billion, Ireland would have a trade surplus of €500 million.

References

Bized (2008) ‘Philips Curve – is unemployment inflated?’ available: http://www.bized.co.uk/virtual/bank/images/phillips.gif [accessed 10 Feb 2008].

Investopedia (2008) ‘Deflation’ available: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Leddin, A. J. and Walsh, B. M. (2003) The Macroeconomy of the Eurozone: an Irish Perspective, Dublin: Gill & Macmillan.

Mc Gourty, S (2007) ‘An Analysis of the Presidents Who Are Responsible for the Borrowing’, available: http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Aggregate Demand’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_demand [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Bank Run’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Bond (Finance) available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_%28finance%29 [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Consumer Price Index’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Consumption Function’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumption_function [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Effective Demand’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_demand [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Fiscal Policy’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_policy [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘GDP Deflator’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP_deflator [accessed 7 Feb 2008].

Wikipedia (2008) ‘Investment Function’ available: http://en.wikipedia.org/wi
ki/Consumption_function [accessed 7 Feb 2008].